Fuente: calculatesriskblogThis suggests unemployment might peak in Summer 2010 since housing starts bottomed in April 2009. However, since I expect the housing recovery to be sluggish, I also expect unemployment to remain high throughout 2010 (I think double digits throughout 2010 is very likely without additional job related stimulus).
Fuente: calculatesriskblog
Fuente: calculatesriskblogThe industry’s occupancy fell 8.7 percent to 55.1 percent for the year and average daily rate dropped 8.8 percent to US$97.51.
Good riddance to 2009, a year which we believe will go down as the worst in the modern hotel industry,” said Mark Lomanno, president at STR
Fuente: chartofthedayThe Dow Jones Industrial Average has recorded a gain of 62.1% since the current rally commenced on March 10. In order to put the rally in historical perspective, Chart of the Day has provided a handy graph on which all major market rallies since 1900 are plotted.
Each dot on the graph below represents a major stock market rally as measured by the Dow and shows the Average began a major rally 27 times over the past 110 years, i.e. an average of one rally every four years.
Most major rallies (73%) resulted in a gain of between 30% and 150% (29.8% to 150.5% to be exact) and lasted between 200 and 800 trading days (9.5 months to 3.2 years) - highlighted below with a blue-shaded box.
“As it stands right now, the current Dow rally (hollow blue dot labeled ‘you are here’) has entered the low range of a ‘typical’ rally and would currently be classified as both short in duration and below average in magnitude,” concluded Chart of the Day.
Some food for thought as we ponder whether we are dealing with a primary bull market or a bear market rally …
Fuente: Asha Bangalore, Northern Trust - Daily Global Commentary, January 14, 2010.
“Retail sales fell 0.3% in December, after an upwardly revised estimate for November (1.8% increase vs. 1.3% in the previous estimate). At first blush, the headline for December looks weak and contradicts the chain store sales reports published last week. These details should help to sort out the report.
“First, unit auto sales increased in December (11.2 million vs. 10.9 million in November) vs. the decline (-0.8%) reported in the retail sales report. Unit auto sales matter for consumer spending in the GDP report for the fourth quarter. But, the fourth quarter average for unit auto sales fell at an annual rate of 20.4% after a nearly 108% jump in the third quarter due to the cash for clunkers program. Therefore, unit auto sales will be a negative for fourth quarter consumer spending. Second, the upbeat chain store sales information published last week were comparisons from a year ago. Retail sales from a year ago presented in today’s report also show strong gains (see chart 4). The 2009 sales numbers look rosy compared with the 2008 weak holiday sales numbers. Third, on a quarterly basis, retail sales excluding autos or excluding auto and gas are stronger in the fourth quarter compared with the third quarter (see table below). Fourth, the level of retail sales excluding gasoline ($318.44 billion) in December compared with the fourth quarter average ($318.2 billion) is virtually flat, implying the absence of an arithmetical advantage.
“The main take away is that consumers are spending but gains are essentially lackluster when the details are sorted out.”
Fuente: John Carney and Kamelia Angelova, Clusterstock - Business Insider, January 12, 2010“There was a 3% increase in the number of global manufacturers shipping to the US market.
“There was a 2% increase in the number of US companies receiving waterborne shipments from global manufacturers.
“Traditionally, these numbers decline from November to December (-5% in 2009 and -1% in 2008).
“You can expect that the good news will continue, although it may be more confusing than clarifying. For the first quarter, the year-over-year comparisons will likely look very good. But that will largely be a result of the global trade free fall in 2009. A better comparison is probably against 2008 or 2007.”
El economista que comentó en su día que habíamos llegado al suelo en Enero del 2009, llama ahora hacia una corrección. Douglas Kass de Seabreeze Partners.
La economía mundial en el 2010. Fundación Carnegie para la paz internacional. ForaTV.
Bill Gross - Bonos del Tesoro Alemán y Brasileño mejores que los fondos públicos del Tesoro Americano.
“Bill Gross, who manages the world’s biggest bond fund for Pimco, expects German and Brazilian bonds to outperform US Treasuries.
“In the US, the budget deficit, which totaled $1.4 trillion last year, will push up Treasury yields faster than German government bonds, Gross said.
“And while the US will likely endure huge deficits for years, Germany has a constitutional amendment requiring a balanced budget by 2016.
“‘(It) is the most fiscally conservative, has half the deficit of the United States, potentially has a low inflation rate, and they yield about the same,’ Gross told Bloomberg, comparing US and German 10-year government bonds.
“The 10-year US Treasury now yields about 45 basis points more than the equivalent 10-year bund.
“Brazilian bonds, which make up 2 percent of Gross’ Pimco Total Return Fund, also are attractive, he says.
“‘Brazil has the highest real interest rates in the world,’ he pointed out.
“Brazil’s 10-year government bond yields 11.22 percent.”
Fuente: Dan Weil, MoneyNews, January 14, 2010.
Pickens - olvida el viento, invierte en gas natural
“Famed Texas billionaire T. Boone Pickens is dramatically changing his position on alternative energy.
“Pickens spent most of the last two years, and $62 million of his oil investing fortune, on an advertising campaign in which he sought to persuade Americans to adopt his plan for wind-based energy.
“The scheme called for a massive expansion of wind energy to displace natural gas, leaving natural gas for use in vehicles, thus displacing foreign oil.
“‘No American with a television set could escape Mr. Pickens’s argument last year. But somehow, a mass conversion to natural gas cars failed to ensue,’ a recent report in The New York Times stated.
“But, now Pickens is changing his pitch.
“Pickens said Wednesday he has cut in half an order for General Electric Co. wind turbines and plans to use the rest in other areas instead of Texas, where he once planned a massive wind farm, the Associated Press reported.
“Pickens, who heads the hedge fund BP Capital Management LP in Dallas, purchased 333 turbines from GE, which was about half his initial order of about 687 turbines.
“Pickens scrapped his plan for a 1,000-megawatt wind farm in West Texas last summer because of technical problems in getting power from the site to transmission facilities.
“Pickens now is spending millions more on a new campaign, with the first advertisements scheduled to be broadcast Thursday on cable stations across the country.
“His aides reckon that a stronger message, concentrating on the national security aspects of energy independence, will be quite effective after the thwarted Christmas Day airliner bombing and other, recent terrorist actions in the United States.
“Natural gas is said to be the cleanest fossil fuel, emitting fewer greenhouse gases than either coal or oil.
“Many energy experts say they think it is underutilized as a fuel, especially since new technologies recently unlocked huge reserves in shale gas fields across the country.
“Some, however, say putting in place the infrastructure for natural gas vehicles would be too costly, and battery-powered electric cars and hybrids are a much better alternative.”
Fuente: Gene Koprowski, MoneyNews, January 14, 2010.
Por qué los inversores continúan engañandose a sí mismos?. Jason Zweig (WallStreetJournal). Link.
Una encuesta en Esados Unidos en el 2009 señalaba que los inversores americanos esperaban retornos de un 13.7% anual de media en los próximos 10 años. Que?????
Dos Meses hasta que el mercado europeo colapse. Niño Becerra. Link.
La que está cayendo y la que puede caer. Jose Antonio Fernandez Hódar y Carmen Ramos. Link.
Turk va la plata por encima de los 50 dólares. James Turk.Link.
15 riesgos políticos y financieros que se avecinan en la próxima década. Gregory White.Link.
El futuro de Europa: Estados Unidos. Miguel Aguirre. Link.
Un saludo y hasta pronto
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