Oro. Algunos articulos y datos interesantes.

5 razones del por qué el oro va a seguir subiendo.

1.El dinero de los grandes esta invertido en oro: John Paulson, David Einhorn, Paul Jones, Jim Rogers y Soros han incrementado sus posiciones en el metal en los último año. Otros famosos inversores que se han posicionado en él han sido, Bill Gross, Kyle Bass (Hayman Capital), Paolo Pellegrini (PSQR), John Burbank (Passport Capital), Evy Hambro (Blackrock), Donald Coxe (Coxe Advisors), y David Tice (Prudent Bear Fund).

2. Los Bancos Centrales son compradores netos de oro por primera vez en 22 años: Este es un cambio radical. Según la firma de estudios económicos GFMS, por primera vez desde 1987, los bancos centrales alrededor del mundo compraron más oro del que vendieron.

3. Mutual Life Insurance Co, la tercera mayor aseguradora de Estados Unidos, ha comprado oro por primera vez en sus 152 años de historia. La cantidad que la firma ha invertido en el metal ha sido de unos 400 millones de dólares.

4.China posee unos 2 trillones de dólares en divisas internacionles y solo un 2% de esa cantidad es oro, frente al 10% de media de otros paises. China necesita hacer un cambio lógico reduciento su exposición en divisas y a la hora de la adquisición de oro por parte de China, el precio podría moverse sustancialmente.

5. Es oro es escaso. La industria del oro no ha podido reemplazar las reservas extraidas desde hace más de una década. Se llegará a una situación en donde simplemente no habrá oro físico para cubrir las masivas cantidades comprometidas.

Fuente: seekingalpha.com

Richard Russell (Dow Theory Letters): Why gold?
“Let’s say you’re a multimillionaire. You’re seriously worried about what to do with your millions in savings. You don’t want to keep your money under your mattress or in your Frigidaire, so where should you keep it? US T-bills are now in a state of zero or even negative interest - you pay the government to hold your money, but you’re SAFE. T-bills have behind them the full faith and credit of the United States. Great, but, now you’re thinking the unthinkable - How good is the full faith and credit of the US? There are rumors that the credit rating of the US could actually be lowered. And with the massive unfunded debt of the US, that could happen, and worse - the dollar could cave in. What to do?

“And you ask yourself, ‘What’s safer than T-bills or even top-grade foreign short-term debt?’ The answer is that there is one item that’s safer - gold. Gold represents intrinsic value in and of itself and by itself. Gold needs no nation to back or guarantee its value. Gold is no single nation’s liability. Furthermore, gold has no maturity date and gold is so safe that it doesn’t need to pay interest to those who hold it. You decide to put your savings into gold rather than T-bills. And unlike T-bills today, gold doesn’t depend on anyone’s ‘full faith and credit’.

“The fact is that the so-called ‘opportunity cost’ of buying or holding gold is zero today. T-bills pay you nothing. The fact is that it’s cheaper, safer, and it makes more sense to hold gold at this time than at almost any time in my memory. And a lot of knowledgeable, big money investors are doing just that - buying and holding gold for safety and as a store of value.”

Source: Richard Russell, Dow theory letters, November 24, 2009.

Financial Times: Gold rush forces US to clip Eagle sales
“The rush by retail investors into gold has forced the US government to suspend sales of the world’s most popular bullion coin, the American Eagle, after running out of inventories.

“The shortage, the second since the start of the financial crisis in August 2008, is the latest sign of investors seeking a safe haven into bullion amid the US dollar woes. Safe-haven buying spurred by concerns about the health of Wall Street and a spike in inflation due to a lax monetary policy have also benefited gold sales.

“‘The US Mint has depleted its current inventory of 2009 American Eagles one-ounce bullion coins due to the continued strong demand,’ the mint said in a statement late on Wednesday. It added that selling will resume ‘once sufficient inventories … can be acquired to meet market demand’.

“The US Mint has sold about 1.19m ounces of American Eagles so far this year, up almost 75 per cent from the same period last year and on track to be the highest annual volume in ten years, according to official data. Sales of American Eagle’s silver coins have hit 26m ounces, the highest level in at least 23 years.”

Source: Javier Blas, Financial Times, November 26, 2009.

International Monetary Fund: IMF announces sale of 10 metric tons of gold to the Central Bank of Sri Lanka
“The International Monetary Fund (IMF) announced today the sale of 10 metric tons of gold to the Central Bank of Sri Lanka. The sale was conducted on the basis of market prices prevailing on November 23, 2009 with proceeds equivalent to US$375 million. This transaction is part of the total sales of 403.3 metric tons approved by the Executive Board in September 2009, and it adds to the total of 202 metric tons already sold to the Reserve Bank of India and the Bank of Mauritius.”

Source: International Monetary Fund, November 25, 2009.

Un saludo y hasta pronto