Lecturas destacadas. Datos y videos.

Cambio anual en ventas minoristas

S&P 500 Index: media en 10 años de retornos reales (basados en el PER desde 1871 - 2009)

Fuente: Inv postcards from Capetown.

Referring to the lofty valuations of the US benchmark indices, the quote du jour today comes from Richard Russell, 85-year-old author of the Dow Theory Letters. He said: “Long-term profits depend largely on your original buy price. Today, as I write, stock valuations are extremely high. For instance, the price-earnings (PE) ratio for the Dow is now 18.02. The dividend yield for the Dow is a thin 2.67%. For the S&P 500 the PE is 86.20; the dividend yield is a mini 1.96%. In the face of these valuations, the odds of building impressive profits over the next decade are very poor (unless, of course, there’s a crash and a new bull market).

“The great fortunes in stocks are made by buying stocks at true bear market lows. At today’s bloated values, profits in stock over the coming decade will probably not be any better than the percentage increase (if any) in the GDP over the same time period.”

The cheapest quintile had an average PE of 8.5 with an average ten-year forward real return of 11,0% per annum, whereas the most expensive quintile had an average PE of 22.6 with an average ten-year forward real return of only 3.1% per annum. Based on the above, with the S&P 500 Index’s current ten-year normalized PE of 20.4, investors should be aware of the fact that the Index is by historical standards in expensive territory. As far as the stock market in general is concerned, this argues for unexciting long-term returns for quite a number of years to come, providing support for Richard Russell’s statement above.

Precio de las acciones, beneficios y tendencia del dividendo. Comparativa con la gran depresión del 29.

Articulos

Qué fácil es invertir en bolsa, del sábado.es.Link.

Las acciones chinas están llamadas a liderar el mundo. Anthony Bolton.Link.

Perspectiva económica para el 2010 de la mano del siempre genial David Rosenberg.Link.

Este no es el final del camino para Dubai. Sultan Sood Al Qassemi. Link.

Las acciones empiezan a demostrar atractivo de nuevo. David Leonhardt.Link.

Ignora a Buffet. La época del oro ha llegado. Jonathan Davis.Link.

Videos

Keiser sobre la crisis en Dubai

Curiosidades

El estado Americano gasta $1.90 por cada $1.00 que ingresa. Y todavía nos preguntamos por qué el oro no para de subir.

The monthly budget statement was just released today, and in November the federal government took in $133.6 bln and spent $253.9 bln. This works out to $1.90 going out for every $1.00 coming in. Believe it or not, this is actually an improvement from October when the ratio was $2.3 going out for every $1 coming in! Over the last 12 months alone, the Federal government has racked up a deficit of $1.4 trillion. Needless to say, this pace of spending versus income can’t keep up forever, and today’s lousy 30-year auction is an indication that investors aren’t too keen on locking up their funds in long-term IOUs from Uncle Sam right now.

Fuente: Wall Street Cheat sheet

A estas alturas, hay muchos que creen que los insiders siguen comprando debido al dramático rally presenciado en estos ultimos meses. Al igual que en otros post anteriores, la tónica sigue siendo la misma: los insiders siguen vendiendo, esta vez a un ratio 81:1. Solo 11,6 millones de dólares comprados por insiders por 957 millones vendidos.

Un saludo y hasta pronto