BBVA

Mirando esta mañana la prensa económica, descubro un artículo que no ha tenido que caer muy bien a los inversores de empresas posicionadas en latinoamérica -sobre todo por lo mucho que ha vendido la prensa en los últimos meses la posición privilegiada de lationamérica respecto a la crisis-. La economía de la región puede contraerse más de lo previsto en este 2009 y los bancos, quiera el señor Botín o el señor González, van a comenzar a ver en sus carnes un aumento de impagos y el descenso en los resultados por mucho que quieran ofrecernos una visión de fortaleza del negocio en latinoamérica.

El chart de largo plazo en escala logarítmica nos muestra una desoladora imagen. En base técnica, no tendríamos soportes relevantes hasta las proximidades de los 2 euros aproximadamente:

Más a corto plazo podemos ver las innumerables resistencias que al valor le quedan para ir convenciendo al mercado de que lo peor ha pasado ya. La pregunta que deberíamos plantearnos sería si en los próximos meses, confiamos en que no vayamos a tener una segunda ola de malos datos macro a lo largo del 2009 y parte del 2010. Seguiremos fieles a nuestro sistema y nos posicionaremos en favor de la tendecia principal una vez presenciado un reversal consistente.

Aquí dejo un post sacado de rgemonitor sobre el último PIB del cuarto trimestre Brasileño: 

• The fourth quarter 2008 figure drove the carry-over to 2009 to -1.5%. This new forecast, as well as other data collected from our sector analyses, leading indicator index, and structural model, lead us to revise downward our year-end 2009 GDP growth forecast to -0.8%. To reach this figure, our base-case scenario assumes that investment should show the sharpest contraction among the demand components, following the pro-cyclical and higher volatility behavior of this variable compared to GDP (Citi)   
  
• Real GDP contraction in Q4 2008 surprised the market to the downside posting a -3.4% q/q s.a. pushing the annual change down from 6.8% y/y to 1.3% y/y. 
  Details: contraction of fixed investments (-9.8% q/q) and private consumption (-2.0% q/q). As a whole, domestic demand contracted 4.3% q/q, down from 9.9% y/y to 3.7% y/y. Net exports contributed positively for the quarterly change with +0.9% on the back of imports falling 8.2% q/q and exports contracting by a lower rate, 2.9% q/q . The drop in private consumption, investments and imports point to a sharp deterioration of domestic absorption which, given the ongoing deterioration of labor conditions is unlikely to be reverted in the near future. Indeed, for 2009 we at RGE Monitor expect Brazilian growth to reach between 0% and 1% 
  
• On the supply side, we saw a weaker performance from services, which contracted 0.4% q/q s.a. (down form 5.9% y/y to 2.5% y/y). The industrial sector tumbled by 7.4% q/q (down from 7.1% y/y to -2.1% y/y). The agricultural sector also declined, -0.5% q/q (down from 6.4% y/y to 2.2% y/y). Those three components led the GDP at basic prices (excluding taxes) to shrink -2.7% q/q s.a. (down from 6.3% y/y to 1.0% y/y). Then, the contribution from taxes reached -0.9% in Q$ versus +0.2% in Q3. In 2008, GDP expanded by 5.1% y/y in real terms, reflecting the strong performance seen in the first three quarters of last year. This result was below the 5.7% y/y seen in 2007 (BNP Paribas)
• Latin America's largest economy shrank in the fourth quarter of last year compared to the previous quarter as the economic crisis gripped the world and put a halt to Brazil's business boom. The economy contracted 3.6 percent during from October to December compared to the third quarter, Brazil's IBGE statistics agency said.  It was the biggest decline for Brazilian gross domestic product since 1996, when a 5.1 percent drop was registered. The economy expanded 1.3 percent in the fourth quarter compared to the same period a year ago, but that rate was much lower than the 6.8 percent increase during the third quarter (IHT) 
  
• Brazil’s recent growth collapse can be described as a statistical ‘black swan’, as it sits in the extreme left-hand side of Brazil’s historical frequency distribution. The plunge is so rare that it is unlikely to repeat. There are signs of some relief in early 2009, but beware of false dawns. Policy support should help to cushion the blow, but powerful headwinds will likely cap the eventual recovery. Three headwinds still threaten Brazil’s outlook: global recession, worsening labor markets and tight credit conditions. Our 2009 forecast assumes growth recovery in 2H09. Our quarterly sequential real GDP growth profile currently foresees outright declines in 4Q08 and 1Q09, a flat reading in 2Q09 and a return to positive figures in 2H09, supported by policy stimulus. The year-on-year growth comparison will plunge from a 6.8% peak in 3Q08 all the way to negative territory by mid-2009. We reaffirm our long-standing, below-consensus view on growth. Brazil’s downturn is proving much deeper than most have been ready for. We continue to look for zero growth in 2009 as a whole. We found very little sympathy when we slashed our already below-consensus 2% growth forecast all the way to zero last December. But the market consensus continues to move steadily, as the notion of zero growth gains increasing acceptance among competitors.(MS) 

  3^rdQuarter - 2008  
  

• Brazil’s growth downturn will prove sharper than most observers are ready for. Our thesis is simple. First, Brazil is more sensitive to global developments than analysts often realize. Second, the global economy is falling into severe recession, facing the worst global crisis in decades. Third, as a logical conclusion, Brazil’s economy will suffer more than most are prepared for. We have recently cut our 2009 Brazil growth forecast to zero, from a previous already below-consensus forecast of 2.0%, along with a generalized downward revision in Morgan Stanley’s 2009 global growth forecast, to 0.9%, from 1.7% before (MS)
• As the final quarter of the year has important implications for next year’s statistical carryover (just 0.8% in our numbers), we also believe that 2009 growth expectations will continue to move lower. We have repeatedly argued, contracting domestic activity in Q4 2008-Q1 2009 likely will produce a widening negative output gap that should ease underlining inflationary pressures and help the anchoring of inflation expectations. The cited activity slowdown indications suggest that this may play out even to a stronger degree than we had expected  (ML)
• Domestic demand reached 9.9%y/y in Q3, up from 9.0%y/y in Q2, while net exports contribution for the annual change reached -3.1% in Q3, down from -2.7% in Q2. On the supply side, the performance of services surprised (from +5.4%y/y to +5.9%y/y in Q3), while the  industry growth went up from 5.6%y/y to 7.1%y/y. The agricultural sector posted growth of 6.4%y/y. Bottom line is that such strong Q3 GDP just reinforces how sharp was the economic deterioration witnessed in the months of October (IP declined -1.7%m/m) and November (auto production -16%m/m; collapse of business confidence, -27% in Oct-Nov period). Our estimate of a flat Q4 GDP remains in place which should drive 2008 GDP to expand 6.0%y/y. For 2009 we expect it to decelerate significantly and reach 2.5%y/y, considering a carry-over effect of 1.3%.(BNP Paribas)
• In Brazil, we expect growth to be 2.8% in 2009 in part because demand carries more momentum going into 2009 in Brazil than elsewhere in the region (Saddi)

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